[Inside Chodong] The More You Know, the More Subtle "Political Mathematics"

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min] The 19th general election on April 11, 2012, was an election swept by the whirlwind of candidate unification. At that time, the Democratic United Party’s card to win the general election was the ‘opposition alliance’ with the Unified Progressive Party. With the largest-ever unification negotiations in a general election, the electoral landscape changed dramatically.

The Democratic Party was filled with dreams of reclaiming the position as the largest party in the National Assembly. In fact, the election results in Seoul exceeded expectations. The Democratic Party won in 30 out of 48 constituencies in Seoul. It is also difficult to explain the Unified Progressive Party’s two successful candidates in Seoul without considering the effect of unification.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The noteworthy point is that the winner of the 19th general election was not the Democratic Party, which launched the opposition alliance gambit, but the Saenuri Party. The Saenuri Party secured a majority in the National Assembly with 152 seats. It was an unexpected result, described as a ‘great comeback.’ This outcome is due to the subtle nature of ‘political mathematics.’

While the sum of 1+1 would naturally seem to be ‘2,’ in politics it can be ‘1.5’ or even ‘1.’ A common misconception regarding unification is to estimate the competitiveness in the main election based on the combined poll support rates of parties A and B. This overlooks the fact that voting behavior involves a complex process of action and reaction to produce the final result.

In the 19th general election, the conservative base, witnessing the Democratic Party joining hands with progressive parties, felt an amplified sense of crisis and became more united. The centrist voters also moved in a direction different from the Democratic Party’s intention. This was reflected in the election results. There was a backlash in Gangwon, Chungcheong, and Yeongnam regions. Incheon did not meet expectations for the unification effect. Except for Seoul, the unification’s impact was underwhelming.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

At least, the 19th general election was an election that tried to minimize noise during the unification process. Although the election results were disappointing, it is regarded as one of the exemplary cases in the history of unification. Even if unification is achieved with difficulty, if the parties remain emotionally estranged, the impact diminishes sharply. A representative example is the 2012 presidential election.

The unification between the two candidates ‘Moon Jae-in and Ahn Cheol-soo’ ultimately ended as a glory marked only by wounds. The problem was that the unification competition became too heated, deepening the emotional rift between the supporters of both sides. This led to expressions of resentment by abstaining from voting or choosing the Saenuri Party candidate.

In the upcoming Seoul mayoral by-election on April 7, the opposition considering candidate unification should carefully reflect on this. As Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, continues his soaring approval ratings, the People Power Party’s Seoul mayoral candidate’s countermeasures are becoming intense. In reaction, the People’s Party has also launched an offensive.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

If the plan is to seek voters’ choice under ‘one flag’ in the main election, it is wise to refrain from election strategies that disparage the opposing party’s candidate. To enhance the unification effect, it is a smart approach to highlight the ‘intersection’ of the future of Seoul envisioned by the People Power Party and the People’s Party.

Only by giving the supporters of both parties a reason to come out to vote can the expected unification effect be approached. If the temptation of ‘political impatience’ is not overcome and only immediate gains are pursued, one may have to soothe a bitter heart before the subtle law of political mathematics that ‘1+1≠2.’

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.