[Hotbed Public Sentiment - Bundang-gap] Kim Byung-kwan and Kim Eun-hye in a 'Frozen Battle' within 1 Percentage Point Margin

Kim Byung-kwan, the Democratic Party candidate running in Bundang-gap, Seongnam-si, Gyeonggi Province (left), and Kim Eun-hye, the United Future Party candidate.
Photo by each candidate

[Asia Economy Reporter Jin-Young Hwang] In Seongnam-si Bundang-gap, Gyeonggi Province, the race remains tight between Kim Byung-kwan, the Democratic Party candidate seeking re-election, and Kim Eun-hye, the United Future Party candidate and former Blue House spokesperson under the Lee Myung-bak administration.

Recent polls show the gap between the two candidates is within about 1 percentage point.

The situation is such that it is impossible to determine who holds the advantage based solely on the polls.

In a poll conducted by Embrain Public on behalf of Munhwa Ilbo from the 7th to 8th among 501 men and women aged 18 and older residing in Seongnam Bundang-gap, 39.3% of respondents said they would vote for Kim Eun-hye, while 38.9% said they would vote for Kim Byung-kwan.

The gap between the two candidates is only 0.4 percentage points.

By age group, candidates Kim Byung-kwan led among those in their 30s and 40s, while Kim Eun-hye led among those in their 50s and 60s and older.

Support among 18-29 year olds was close, with Kim Byung-kwan at 31.9% and Kim Eun-hye at 28.6%.

Among the active voters who said they would definitely vote, support was 42.2% for Kim Byung-kwan and 40.9% for Kim Eun-hye.

The survey was conducted via landline and mobile phone interviews (landline 10.4% + mobile 89.6%), with a response rate of 16.2%.

The sampling error is ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

In a poll conducted by Matrix Research on behalf of TV Chosun on the 6th among 500 residents of Bundang-gap, 46.9% of respondents said they would vote for Kim Byung-kwan, while 44.1% said they would vote for Kim Eun-hye.

The gap between the two candidates was 2.8 percentage points, within the margin of error (±4.4 percentage points).

Kim Byung-kwan showed strength among those aged 40 and under, while Kim Eun-hye was stronger among those aged 50 and over.

When asked about the likelihood of winning, 54.2% said Kim Byung-kwan, and 31.4% said Kim Eun-hye.

Party support in the area was 38.1% for the Democratic Party and 33.8% for the United Future Party.

Both candidates show higher support rates than their respective parties.

The survey was conducted entirely via mobile phone interviews, with a response rate of 25.2%.

The sampling error is ±4.4 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. (For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.)

Bundang-gap, which covers the northern part of Bundang New Town and the entire Pangyo New Town, has traditionally been a conservative stronghold.

Former lawmaker Ko Heung-gil, who served as editor-in-chief of JoongAng Ilbo, was elected three times (16th to 18th National Assembly) in this area, and in the 19th general election, Lee Jong-hoon, a professor of business administration at Myongji University and a Saenuri Party candidate, was elected.

In the last general election, Kim Byung-kwan, the Democratic Party candidate and former CEO of NHN Games, won with 63,698 votes (47.0%), defeating Kwon Hyuk-se, former Financial Supervisory Service chief and Saenuri Party candidate, who received 52,169 votes (38.5%).

Kim Byung-kwan, seeking re-election, has pledged policies including property tax reductions for single-homeowners, and the construction of a future city Bundang through reconstruction and remodeling.

Challenger Kim Eun-hye has promised to increase floor area ratios during reconstruction and redevelopment and to block increases in official property prices.