"Even Four-Person Households With Perfect Scores Failed"... Seoul 'Lottery Complexes' See Subscription Cutoff Exceed 70 Points

Godeok Gangil Daesung Berhill, 84A Unit Cutoff at 71 Points
Perfect Score for Four-Person Households Not Enough to Win
"200 Million Won Lottery" Draws 40,000 Applicants... Average Competition Ratio 97 to 1
More Price-Capped Units Coming to Gangnam This Year... Record-High Subscription Competition Expected

This year, for the first time in the subscription market, a complex has appeared where even a perfect score for a four-person household was not enough to win. This was the case with Godeok Gangil Daesung Berhill in Gangdong-gu, Seoul, which had been dubbed a "200 million won lottery." Analysts say that the price ceiling system, which guarantees a profit margin, is further intensifying polarization in the subscription market.

Photo by DS General Construction

According to Korea Real Estate Board's Subscription Home on June 12, the minimum winning score for the general supply of the 84㎡A type at Godeok Gangil Daesung Berhill in Gangdong-gu, Seoul, was 71 points. A subscription score in the 70s is only possible for households with at least five members. The perfect score for a four-person household with more than 15 years of no home ownership and more than 15 years of subscription savings is 69 points. This means that even four-person households with a perfect score failed to win for the 84㎡A type.

Godeok Gangil Daesung Berhill offered a total of four types: three types of 84㎡ units and one type of 101㎡ unit. For the three types other than the 84㎡A, which recorded the lowest winning score of 71 points, the minimum winning score for each was 69 points. Although the situation was slightly better than for 84A, even four-person households with a perfect score barely made it into the winning range.

This is the first time a cutoff in the 70s has appeared in the subscription market since Acro Ritz County in Bangbae-dong, Seoul, which was offered in December last year. At that time, the 84㎡D type had a minimum score of 70 points, and the 144㎡ type had a minimum score of 72 points, with two types recording cutoffs in the 70s.

Godeok Gangil Daesung Berhill is the last private-sector complex to be offered in the Godeok Gangil district. Due to the price ceiling system, the maximum sale price for the 84㎡ units was set at 984 million won, about 200 million won cheaper than nearby market prices. As a result, it was dubbed the "200 million won lottery," and a total of 41,768 people applied for both special and general supply. The average competition ratio was 97 to 1.

This concentration of high scores is a recurring trend in complexes subject to the price ceiling system. Raemian One Perla in Bangbae-dong, Seoul, which was offered in February, recorded an average competition ratio of 151 to 1. The minimum winning score for all unit types was 69 points. The sale price was 500 million won lower than the market price, earning it the nickname "500 million won lottery."

On the other hand, in complexes where the sale price is higher than the market price or lacks merit, both the competition ratio and cutoff score are low. Last month, Guro-gu Gocheok Prugio Hillstate had a minimum winning score of 49 points, while Eunpyeong-gu Hillstate Mediale had a minimum of 39 points. Even within Seoul, this shows the extreme polarization between complexes.

This trend is expected to continue in the second half of this year. Major redevelopment projects in the Gangnam area, such as the Sinbanpo 21st Reconstruction Project in Seocho-gu, Raemian Trini One, Arc Road Seocho, and the Namseoul General Market Redevelopment Project in Gangnam-gu, as well as Xai The Carat 141, are all scheduled for subscription within the year under the price ceiling system.

Yang Jiyeong, head of the Asset Management Consulting Division at Shinhan Investment & Securities, said, "As it has been 15 years since the launch of the comprehensive subscription savings account last year, the number of perfect-score applicants has increased, intensifying competition for points," adding, "Even in the future, it will be difficult for four-person households with perfect scores to be assured of winning subscriptions in Seoul where there is a safety margin."