Nomura "LG Chem, CATL, Samsung SDI, BYD, and Samsung SDI 5 Companies Will Lead the Electric Vehicle Battery Market"
[Asia Economy Reporter Hwang Yoon-joo] It is forecasted that among electric vehicle battery companies, South Korea's LG Chem and Samsung SDI, along with China's CATL, will have the highest growth rates over the next three years. The electric vehicle battery market is expected to be led by five companies: LG Chem, CATL, Panasonic, BYD, and Samsung SDI.
According to Nomura Securities on the 17th, LG Chem's electric vehicle battery sector is projected to grow by 30% compared to 2019, reaching $13.722 billion in 2023. During the same period, Samsung SDI is expected to increase by 55% to $13.521 billion, and CATL by 18% to $10.966 billion. In contrast, Japan's Panasonic, which competes with LG Chem for the global market share number one spot, is analyzed to grow by only 7%, reaching $5.74 billion.
The reason for the steep growth rates of LG Chem and Samsung SDI is their relatively diverse battery supply portfolios. LG Chem supplies batteries to various countries and electric vehicle models, including the Volkswagen Group, Chinese automakers, the U.S. GM, and South Korea's Hyundai. The high expected growth rate of Chinese battery companies is attributed to subsidies from the Chinese government.
Nomura predicts that the electric vehicle market will expand by 30% compared to the present by 2030. Park Se-young, head of Nomura Securities, stated, "By 2030, the electric vehicle markets in China and Europe will each grow by 20%, accounting for 30% of the total electric vehicle market," adding, "Last year, the market share of New Energy Vehicles (NEV) was only 6%, but it is expected to grow to 48% by 2030."
The most important policy for the significant growth of the electric vehicle market was identified as government subsidy policies. This aligns with the rapid growth of Chinese electric vehicle battery companies and the high electric vehicle shipment volume in Norway.
Park Se-young explained, "Currently, among countries worldwide, Norway has the highest electric vehicle shipment rate at 68%. Norway offers high electric vehicle subsidies and policies such as tax deductions and exemption from toll fees, demonstrating that government policies drive the electric vehicle market."
He emphasized that government will, including subsidy policies for electric vehicles, is crucial as a tipping point for the growth of the electric vehicle market.
Park said, "From the perspective of automakers, production can only increase if electric vehicle sales are profitable, but so far, electric vehicles are not a market that yields profits for finished car companies. From the consumer's standpoint, there must be a total cost of ownership (TCO) advantage where purchasing an electric vehicle is economically beneficial compared to internal combustion engine vehicles for the electric vehicle industry to reach its tipping point."
He also pointed out that Tesla's role is very important for the short-term growth of the electric vehicle market.
Park stated, "Next year, Tesla's Shanghai factory production capacity will double compared to the current level, enabling battery parts suppliers to Tesla to grow alongside. Related parts companies, including Chinese battery manufacturers, are also expected to grow due to Tesla's production increase."
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
