[Presidential Election Analysis] ① Kim Manheum and Chae Jinwon: "The Election Result Was a Judgment on Martial Law and a Check on One-Sided Dominance" [AK Radio]

"1.3 Million Vote Gap in Gyeonggi Province Draws Attention"
"Regionalism Intensifies, Seoul Voters Seek to Keep Power in Check"
"Governance Will Be Difficult, Pro-Lee System Likely to Strengthen"

Lee Jaemyung, the candidate from the Democratic Party of Korea, has become the 21st President of South Korea. Lee secured 49.42% of the vote, surpassing Kim Moonsoo of the People Power Party (41.15%), Lee Junseok of the Reform New Party (8.34%), and Kwon Youngguk of the Democratic Labor Party (0.98%). On the morning of June 4, former Director of the National Assembly Legislative Research Office Kim Manheum and Professor Chae Jinwon of the Kyung Hee University Public Governance Institute appeared on the Asia Economy YouTube channel 'AK Radio'. They interpreted the results by saying, "While the public judged the issue of martial law, Lee Jaemyung failed to secure a majority, and the gap with Kim Moonsoo was less than 10%. This reflects the public's desire to check any one-sided dominance."

How do you analyze the factors behind Lee Jaemyung's victory?

Kim Manheum: The outcome was determined more by how much voters wanted to judge the opponent, rather than by the strengths of the candidate. The election was held amid a worsening negative perception of the candidates. As a candidate, Lee Jaemyung faced even more serious legal controversies than during the previous presidential election. Although Kim Moonsoo was not directly responsible for the 12·3 martial law or impeachment, he was overshadowed by their legacy. He failed to break away from this, and when his opponent continued to attack him with the frame of ending the rebellion forces, he got caught up in it. Amid warnings about the dangers of the 'bulletproof dictatorship' and slogans about ending the rebellion forces,the more forceful offensive from the Democratic Party side proved effective. There were also self-inflicted mistakes on Kim Moonsoo's side.

* Click the video to watch the full discussion.

Did the People Power Party fail to respond properly?

Kim Manheum: They tried to counter the 'rebellion forces' frame, but they should have made it clear that the issue was already over and was being handled judicially. However, Kim Moonsoo himself did not clearly address the issue of responsibility regarding former President Yoon Sukyeol. While the opponent's offensive was effective, Kim failed to resolve the issue himself and was ultimately trapped by that frame.

There were even some sarcastic assessments that former President Yoon Sukyeol played the role of a kingmaker.

Kim Manheum: He should have either taken responsibility and withdrawn, or completely disappeared from the scene. But whenever he appeared, it was unclear whether he was trying to help win votes or inadvertently helping the opponent. This was confusing to everyone.

Professor Chae, what do you see as the main reason for Lee Jaemyung's victory?

Chae Jinwon: In elections, we usually talk about the candidate, the overall structure, and the prevailing winds. In this election, the structure and the wind were more important. If you combine the votes of Kim Moonsoo and Lee Junseok, they actually surpass Lee Jaemyung's total. Things could have been different if they had unified. The 'wind'?the strong judgment frame of ending the rebellion forces?also played a major role. Because these two factors dominated, Lee Jaemyung did not have a significant advantage in terms of personal competitiveness. This was a major reason he failed to surpass 50%. Rather than winning because he was outstanding, Lee benefited from a favorable structure and wind.

Do you think Lee Jaemyung could have been defeated if Kim Moonsoo and Lee Junseok had unified?

Chae Jinwon: Yes. There would have been synergy, and especially Lee Junseok could have brought in more votes. The race would have been much closer.

Kim Manheum: But how much real synergy would there have been if Kim Moonsoo and Lee Junseok had united? Before talking about synergy with Lee Junseok, the People Power Party should have addressed its own weaknesses first. With the candidate's qualifications in question, the election was not fought in a way that could generate positive momentum. Kim Moonsoo failed to overcome his own weaknesses, and whether it was due to his personality or his ideological tendencies, he carried these issues to the end.

The Democratic Party seemed to focus on winning more than 50% of the vote and widening the gap with Kim Moonsoo to over 10 percentage points.

Chae Jinwon: Lee Jaemyung used a strong frame and strategy centered on ending the rebellion forces. He also tried to expand into the center by framing the conservative party. The first frame seemed effective, but the second was less so. His personal competitiveness, tied to issues of morality and offset by his 'runaway image,' made it difficult to expand into the center. From the start, it was somewhat contradictory. He tried to present himself as a rational and reasonable person to those suffering from 'Lee Jaemyung phobia,' but it was not enough to hide his true image.

Kim Manheum: The emphasis seemed to shift depending on the situation. When things were going well, he projected a broad, inclusive image, but when things got tough, he shifted to the theme of purging the rebellion forces. As the campaign neared its end, the focus on ending the rebellion forces suggests there was a strong sense of crisis internally. While there was a strategy for centrist expansion in policy, efforts to soften Lee Jaemyung's 'radical' image may also have helped.

Are there any noteworthy points in the regional breakdown of the election results?

Kim Manheum: There are two regions to note. Lee Jaemyung beat Kim Moonsoo by a margin of 2.89 million votes. In Gyeonggi Province alone, the gap was 14.2 percentage points, or 1.3 million votes. Kim received 27.95% of the vote there. In the previous election, Yoon Sukyeol had received 45%. The gap widened as Lee Junseok took votes. Lee Jaemyung narrowed the gap in the Yeongnam region compared to before, but widened it in the Honam region. While the focus on Honam intensified, there was only a slight increase in Daegu and Gyeongbuk. From the perspective of party politics, the fact that a pluralistic party system is not functioning in Honam is a serious problem.

Chae Jinwon: Regionalism between Yeongnam and Honam has become even more pronounced. Lee Jaemyung solidified his support in the progressive-leaning Honam region. The gap widened compared to the past. Kim Moonsoo seems to have defended the Yeongnam region relatively well. Regionalism in Yeongnam has weakened somewhat compared to Honam, which allowed Lee Jaemyung to perform slightly better there. However, it was not enough to change the overall trend. Seoul is also notable: Kim Moonsoo received 41.6%, while Lee Jaemyung received 47.1%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This shows a strong desire among Seoul voters to check any one-sided dominance. Perhaps they want a government that does not rule alone.

It seems you both agree that regionalism has deepened.

Kim Manheum: Support has shifted to cartel-like forces. In the past, people supported and gathered around public values or certain ideologies, serving their parties. Now, people support cartel forces disguised as political parties, calculating what benefits or power they might gain?there is no difference from any other cartel-driven organization. This is quite concerning.

What stands out in the generational breakdown?

Chae Jinwon: The 60s age group is noteworthy. The two main candidates were neck and neck. Among voters in their 20s, the debate between 'Idaenam' (young men) and 'Idaenyeo' (young women) resurfaced. Lee Junseok won 37% of the male vote among those in their 20s, ranking first. This was completely different from the female vote in the same age group. Lee Junseok's remarks in the third TV debate seemed to generate strong backlash.Many young female voters defected to support Lee Jaemyung, repeating what happened in the previous election.

Kim Manheum: If Lee Junseok's remarks had occurred when he was competing for first or second place with 30-40% support, it would have been a very dangerous variable. But with his support around 10%, it was actually a plus for him. It was not a significant loss. The lower vote share was due to his fundamental limitations and, in the end, factors like strategic voting. Among age groups, the 40s and 50s are noteworthy. How can the People Power Party hope to be the first or second party when it fails to gain support from this mainstream generation? This is something the People Power Party must take very seriously. If they cannot win over this group, it will be difficult to ask for power.

Former Director of the Legislative Research Office Manheum Kim and Professor Jinwon Chae appeared on the Asia Economy YouTube channel 'AK Radio'.

Chae Jinwon: The 586 generation is now in their 60s, and if the 40s and 50s continue this trend, the conservative party's support base will be effectively neutralized. The People Power Party faces a crisis of possible extinction unless it completely transforms and prepares for change.

What kind of politics do you expect from President Lee Jaemyung?

Kim Manheum: He has already convened an extraordinary session of the National Assembly for June 5. Isn't he planning to submit the previously proposed amendments to the Criminal Procedure Act and the Election Act? If not, with the appellate court hearing scheduled for June 18, the outcome of that will be a major issue. The 'bulletproof' controversy will inevitably arise.He is now even trying to change the legal foundations, so it remains to be seen what will happen... This will be the biggest controversy and have a significant impact.

Chae Jinwon: He talked about ending rebellion and national unity, but the former will be much more prominent, by a ratio of about 7 to 3. The conservative base will strongly oppose any 'judicial takeover,' making governance extremely difficult. There is a high possibility that the presidential system, based on the separation of powers, will be operated in a parliamentary cabinet style, merging the legislative and executive branches. To the opposition and rival parties, this will inevitably appear as further strengthening of an imperial presidency. National unity will be little more than a slogan; in reality, the administration will move toward a more confrontational, strongman presidency, using this as justification to further solidify the pro-Lee system.

What do you expect from Lee Junseok's next moves?

Chae Jinwon: Amid appropriate tension and realignment, Lee Junseok will likely struggle to seize the initiative. He performed well and made significant progress. This seed will be used as energy for conservative realignment.

Former Director Kim Manheum diagnosed, "The defeat of candidate Kim Moonsoo was more due to Kim's own limitations than the failure of unification."

Kim Manheum: Securing 8.34% was a significant achievement. He grew a lot.If the aftermath within the People Power Party leads to realignment, he could be involved. Although he may be criticized for not unifying, the greater responsibility lies with the People Power Party and Kim Moonsoo himself, rather than with Lee Junseok personally.