Pretrial Hearing Before Chuseok 'Dismissed'
"Public Sentiment at the Dinner Table Favors the Democratic Party"
Resolution of Internal Conflict in the Democratic Party Influences Centrist Voter Sentiment
The winner of this year's Chuseok ancestral rites table, a true test of public sentiment, was Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea. With the dismissal of the arrest warrant against him, the Chuseok public opinion that could influence next year's general election is expected to tilt toward the opposition party.
According to political circles on the 28th, Yoo Chang-hoon, the chief judge in charge of warrants at the Seoul Central District Court, dismissed the arrest warrant request for Lee, which was filed on charges including violation of the Act on the Aggravated Punishment of Specific Crimes (bribery). With Lee, who was facing the risk of arrest, making a comeback, the crisis for the Democratic Party turned into an opportunity. The People Power Party, which had been humming a tune after the approval of the motion to consent to Lee’s arrest, canceled the originally planned Chuseok homecoming greetings and held emergency closed-door Supreme Council and parliamentary meetings in succession to devise countermeasures.
The Democratic Party, which had been half-doubting Lee’s return, held Supreme Council and parliamentary meetings that day and then visited Yongsan Station to greet Chuseok travelers.
Experts predicted that due to the court’s decision on the warrant review released a day before the Chuseok holiday, this year’s Chuseok table public sentiment would lean toward Lee and the Democratic Party. In particular, it was evaluated that the Democratic Party gained an advantageous position in the Seoul Gangseo District mayoral by-election scheduled for the 11th of next month.
Professor Shin Yul of the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Myongji University explained, "It will immediately benefit Lee and the Democratic Party in the Chuseok public sentiment," adding, "Ordinary citizens think that if the warrant is dismissed, it means there is no guilt. Moreover, the judge’s statement that there is ‘room for dispute’ is completely different from saying there is no risk of evidence destruction." This means that the prosecution, as well as the government and ruling party, may face public opinion accusing them of 'excessive investigation.' Political commentator Park Sang-byeong also forecasted, "Lee has secured momentum that can lead not only the Chuseok table public sentiment but also the future political situation."
However, Kim Bong-shin, CEO of the polling agency Metavoice, said, "The legitimacy of the prosecution’s investigation has collapsed, and Lee’s leadership itself has overcome the crisis, but it is not a very brilliant situation." There is criticism that the process of the warrant review was not clean, as the motion to consent to arrest was processed due to rebellious votes within the party even though Lee practically requested its rejection. Professor Shin also said, "We need to see whether (Lee and the Democratic Party’s) advantage will last in the long term," and predicted, "If the hardline supporters gain too much power, the moderate voters will turn away."
The key issue going forward is the level of reconciliation within the Democratic Party. As Lee completely takes control of the party leadership, the dominant view is that the 'pro-Lee system' will be solidified. In the floor leader election held the day before with pro-Lee candidates, Hong Ik-pyo, who belongs to the pro-Lee faction, was elected floor leader, making the party leadership entirely pro-Lee.
Commentator Park said, "The lawmakers who voted in favor of the motion to consent to Lee’s arrest now have nothing to say," adding, "Even if the party does not immediately mention punishment, the party is completely under control." However, CEO Kim analyzed, "If there is no inclusive politics toward those who voted in favor, internal party strife may occur again, and that could lead to a negative direction. Conversely, if Lee shows an inclusive attitude, he can completely resolve the risk. He is at that crossroads."
The political situation is expected to become even more intense. Commentator Park said, "As the results of the prosecution’s investigation over one and a half to two years under the Yoon Seok-youl administration ended up like this, Lee’s claim of excessive investigation has become true," and "Criticism against the ruling party will intensify further." Professor Shin predicted, "The opposition’s offensive will inevitably intensify, so the ruling party will have to enter defense mode," adding, "The best defense is ultimately offense, so the ruling party will also respond." The upcoming October National Assembly audit and budget review could all become battlegrounds between the ruling and opposition parties.
In fact, Hong Ik-pyo, the newly appointed floor leader of the Democratic Party, demanded President Yoon Seok-youl’s apology and the dismissal of Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon at the Supreme Council meeting of the National Assembly that day.
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