[US Election 2024]
The dice have been cast, and the lid has been opened. In the early stages of vote counting on the 5th (local time), which will decide the owner of the White House for the next four years, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are engaged in a tight race, as expected, centered around battleground states.
In key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, the biggest hurdle to winning the presidential election, Vice President Harris is leading, while former President Trump is ahead in other battleground states like Georgia. However, since it is still early in the counting process and the 'magic number 270 (270 electoral votes)' has not yet been reached, it is difficult to predict the winner of the election.
According to the Associated Press and others, as of 11:20 a.m. Korean time on the day, Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Harris has secured 99 electoral votes, starting with the 'blue state' Vermont and announcing consecutive victories. Republican presidential candidate former President Trump has also secured 177 electoral votes, mainly from 'red states' Kentucky and Indiana. To win the presidential election, a candidate must secure more than half of the 538 electoral votes allocated to each state, that is, at least 270 electoral votes.
The current vote counting situation is evaluated as 'no major surprises.' In general, in U.S. presidential elections, there is a tendency for an early lead by the Republicans in the initial vote count before early voting is included, which then disappears, known as the 'red mirage.' The states where the Associated Press has reported 'victory declarations' so far belong to either red states or blue states. The AP, which is reporting the situation by state in real time, described the results as "unsurprising."
The key battlegrounds are the seven swing states, so-called because voter sentiment swings like a pendulum. In North Carolina, one of the battleground states, as of 10:35 a.m. Korean time, with 18% of the votes counted, Vice President Harris was overtaken by former President Trump, who had 52.6% compared to Harris's 46.5%. Just about ten minutes earlier, Harris had a slight lead but was reversed. North Carolina, which has 16 electoral votes at stake, is the only one among the seven battleground states that former President Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Former President Trump also holds a slight lead in another battleground state, Georgia. Georgia currently has the highest percentage of votes counted among the seven battleground states.
On the other hand, in the 'Blue Wall' battleground states, Vice President Harris is leading. In Pennsylvania, the largest battleground state, as of 11:20 a.m., with 23% of the votes counted, Vice President Harris holds a 57.3% lead. In Michigan, where 12% of the votes have been counted, Harris leads with 53.4% over former President Trump's 44.8%. In Wisconsin, one of the Blue Wall states, voting closed at 11 a.m. Korean time and has not yet been reflected in the count. For Vice President Harris to win this election, she must hold onto the three Midwestern Blue Wall Rust Belt states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. It is especially important to win Pennsylvania, the largest battleground state with the most electoral votes at 19.
Since the vote counting in the battleground states that will decide this election is still in its early stages, the outline of the winner remains uncertain. Arizona and Nevada, also battleground states, like Wisconsin, closed voting at 11 a.m. and have now begun counting. The U.S. presidential election is won by the candidate who secures at least 270 electoral votes, and the distribution of the 93 electoral votes from the closely contested battleground states will determine the outcome.
Analysis models released on election day predicted Vice President Harris's chances of winning to be slightly higher by a very narrow margin. Nate Silver, a statistician famous for his 'pinpoint predictions' of past U.S. presidential elections, analyzed the expected electoral votes as 271 for Harris and 267 for former President Trump. The polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight produced similar results. According to this site, Vice President Harris's chance of winning is 50%, and she is expected to secure 270 electoral votes. Former President Trump's expected electoral vote count is 268.
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