[Turning Point Yoon] ① Support Rate with 'Red Light' On Shows No Signs of Bottoming Out

Approval Ratings Hit Post-Inauguration Lows in Every Poll
Growing Disaffection Among Core Supporters in TK, Ages 60-70
Securing National Momentum Difficult with Support Below 10%

As of November 10, just before the halfway point of his term, President Yoon Seok-yeol's approval rating is showing nothing but red flags. Regular public opinion polls conducted since his inauguration warn that the president's approval rating is hitting its lowest point since taking office.

The trends from polling firms on the 5th were largely consistent. Although the numbers differed among the Realmeter poll (conducted via ARS) released on the 4th, the National Barometer Survey (NBS, telephone interview method), and Gallup (telephone interview method), the direction and key keywords all matched: a downward trend and record lows since taking office. The question remains whether President Yoon can find a turning point in the second half of his administration.

President Yoon's Approval Rating ① A President Who Started with Low Approval

President Yoon's approval rating mostly hovered in the 20-30% range during the first half of his term. However, in the early days of his administration, it exceeded 50%. Gallup's first poll after his inauguration (released on May 13, 2022) recorded 51%. After winning the local elections, it even reached 53%.

However, compared to previous presidents, Yoon's approval rating was not particularly high. During his president-elect period, controversies over relocating the presidential office to Yongsan and the power struggle between the old and new administrations with former President Moon Jae-in contributed to relatively low ratings. In the first post-inauguration poll asking whether respondents believed he would perform well over the next five years, 60% answered "will do well." In comparison, former President Kim Young-sam received 85%, former President Lee Myung-bak 79%, former President Park Geun-hye 79%, and former President Moon Jae-in 87% for the same question.

President Yoon's Approval Rating ② A Short Honeymoon Period

The honeymoon period was also brief. In the first week of August 2022, President Yoon's approval rating dropped to 24%. Within less than 100 days after taking office, his approval rating was halved. The rapid decline in early expectations was largely due to conflicts with then-People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok (now a member of the Reform New Party) and confusion surrounding reform directions such as the establishment of the Police Bureau.

Although the approval ratings among key ruling party support bases such as Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK) and conservative voters remained more positive than negative, the gap narrowed to less than single digits. Subsequently, President Yoon's approval rating fluctuated between the 20-30% range. Consistent responses to labor union issues, strengthening Korea-US relations, and stabilizing the real estate market were strengths, while controversies such as the Fukushima contaminated water issue acted as weaknesses.

President Yoon's Approval Rating ③ The Gamble: Medical Reform

A bold reform attempt became a turning point in public opinion. In early February this year, President Yoon announced plans to increase medical school quotas by 2,000. The public responded positively to this medical reform initiative, which previous administrations had failed to pursue. In the last week of February and the first week of March, Gallup recorded President Yoon's approval rating at 39%, breaking out of the 20-30% box. It seemed possible to escape the minority ruling situation in the general election. Respondents who supported the president's governance cited the expansion of medical school quotas as the main reason for their support.

However, these expectations faded over time as the medical reform was seen as being pushed forward without adequate preparation, leading to controversies over medical service gaps. This began to weigh on his approval rating.

Then came the general election. The government hoped to break the minority ruling situation at the election and gain reform momentum to lead the political landscape in the latter half of the term. However, after a crushing defeat in the election, the administration was forced to govern in a minority ruling situation throughout the term. Following the cold voter sentiment confirmed in the election, President Yoon's approval rating fell to the low 20% range and failed to recover to the 30% level.

President Yoon's Approval Rating ④ Even the 20% Threshold Has Fallen

The most recent poll conducted on the 1st (fifth week of October 2024) broke the 20% box. Recording 19%, it fell into the 10% range for the first time since inauguration. Public opinion grew colder following allegations related to First Lady Kim Geon-hee and the revelation of phone conversations between President Yoon and political broker Myung Tae-gyun.

Comparing the first poll after inauguration with the last poll of the first half of the term (fifth week of October 2024) reveals a sharp shake-up among President Yoon's core support groups. At the beginning of his term, groups showing over 60% support for President Yoon included Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK), Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (PK), and those in their 60s and 70s or older. However, except for the People Power Party supporters who gave a 44% positive rating and an equal negative rating in the second week of October, negative evaluations dominated all other respondent groups. The core pillars of his support base have disappeared.

Where Is the Bottom of the Approval Rating?

Experts believe that the bottom of President Yoon's approval rating has not yet been confirmed.

Hong Hyung-sik, director of Hangil Research, said, "Typically, a president's approval rating has a lower bound, and once this lower bound is confirmed, it tends to rebound in a U-shaped pattern." He analyzed, "President Yoon also created such effects through reform policies or overseas trips, but now most of these effects have disappeared." Hong added, "Currently, even the conservative base, which is President Yoon's core support group, is alienating him. The key issue is where the conservative base's lower support line will be established, and it depends on how much President Yoon satisfies the cultural conservatism, such as the Confucian principle of self-cultivation, that conservatives have demanded." This means that President Yoon needs to address the dissatisfaction among conservative voters regarding his attitude and issues related to First Lady Kim Geon-hee. He predicted, "It is important to see how far the approval rating will fall?whether it will be in the early or late teens?as this will lead to very different scenarios."

Kim Bong-shin, director at Metavoice, diagnosed, "There is the Myung Tae-gyun issue, the opposition party is calling for a special prosecutor, and even the ruling party is demanding an apology, so the downward pressure continues unabated." Kim noted, "Conservative-leaning voters and People Power Party supporters, who had been sustaining the 20% level, are no longer holding on, and the decoupling trend between the president's approval rating and the People Power Party's approval rating is also noteworthy."

Experts ultimately agree that President Yoon must find a breakthrough. Hong analyzed that the approval rating must be raised first. He said, "Typically, a president's approval rating is both a lagging evaluation of past actions and a driving force for governance. Without approval, governance momentum inevitably declines, so recovering the approval rating should come first." Kim added, "President Yoon needs to listen to the ruling party leadership or join hands with the opposition leader. It will not be easy to just hold on as he is doing now."