The Economist: Harris 48% vs Trump 45%
Trump Leads in Michigan and Wisconsin
Trump Shifts Left on Abortion and Marijuana to Appeal to Moderates
With the US presidential election in November just over a month away, another poll has shown that Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris holds an edge over Republican candidate former President Donald Trump in nationwide approval ratings. However, a separate survey revealed that Trump leads in the Rust Belt, a declining industrial region among the battleground states, indicating a tight race between the two camps until the final stretch of the election.
On the 3rd (local time), The Economist of the UK commissioned polling firm YouGov to survey 1,638 adults nationwide from October 29 to November 1. The results showed Vice President Harris with 48% support, leading former President Trump’s 45% by 3 percentage points (margin of error ±3.2 percentage points).
When asked who they expect to win the presidential election, 40% of respondents chose Vice President Harris, while 35% selected former President Trump.
By gender, Harris led by 10 percentage points among women, but Trump held a 4 percentage point advantage among male respondents.
On the other hand, among battleground states that will decide the election, a poll showed that Trump holds an advantage over Harris in the Rust Belt region.
According to polling firm Trafalgar Group, a survey of 1,086 Michigan voters from October 28 to 30 showed Trump and Harris with support rates of 46.9% and 44.7%, respectively. In a survey of 1,079 Wisconsin voters, Trump received 47.1% support while Harris had 46% (margin of error ±2.9 percentage points each).
The seven battleground states in the US are broadly divided into the Rust Belt, a declining industrial region in the north, and the Sun Belt, a milder climate region in the south. Michigan and Wisconsin, along with Pennsylvania, are considered part of the Rust Belt. Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina belong to the Sun Belt. As battleground states are seen as decisive in the election outcome, the close race within the margin of error between Trump and Harris makes it difficult to predict the final election results until the very end.
Meanwhile, former President Trump is adopting a more flexible stance on issues such as abortion and marijuana to expand his support base by targeting women and undecided voters.
Although Trump was opposed to abortion when he ran in the 2016 election, he officially expressed opposition to a nationwide abortion ban through his social media platform Truth Social just the day before. His wife, Melania Trump, is also reported to strongly support abortion rights in her memoir to be published next week. Additionally, Trump stated that he would vote in favor of a Florida referendum allowing private marijuana use for adults over 21 in this year’s election. During his first presidential run, he only supported medical marijuana use. However, Trump maintains a hardline stance on immigration issues.
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