[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea's Nuclear Capability Has Grown

Defense White Paper, Nuclear Material Plutonium Increased from 50kg to 70kg
Diversification of Missiles Capable of Mounting Nuclear Warheads

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea is assessed to have further enhanced its nuclear weapons capabilities. It is analyzed that the amount of plutonium capable of manufacturing nuclear weapons has increased, and the variety of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads has diversified.

According to the 2022 Defense White Paper published on the 16th, North Korea is officially evaluated to possess about 70 kg of plutonium, enough to manufacture 9 to 18 nuclear weapons through nuclear reprocessing. North Korea's plutonium stockpile was stated as "about 50 kg" in the 2016-2020 Defense White Papers, but this latest White Paper shows an increase of about 20 kg.

The government increased North Korea's plutonium stockpile estimate for the first time in six years based on the judgment that the plutonium reprocessing suspicions raised by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General and others in 2021 were factual.

The Defense White Paper states, "Since the 1980s, nuclear materials have been produced through the operation of nuclear facilities such as Yongbyon, and it is evaluated that North Korea currently possesses about 70 kg of plutonium through nuclear reprocessing and a considerable amount of highly enriched uranium (HEU) through its uranium enrichment program."

The plutonium possessed by North Korea can manufacture 9 to 18 nuclear weapons. When manufacturing a nuclear weapon (nuclear warhead), depending on components and technical capability, 4 to 8 kg of plutonium is required per weapon.

However, North Korea is not officially recognized as a nuclear-armed state. The White Paper maintains the existing evaluation, stating, "Considering the six nuclear tests conducted from October 2006 to September 2017, it is assessed that North Korea's capability to miniaturize nuclear weapons has reached a considerable level."

The Defense White Paper mentioned the possibility of a seventh nuclear test last year based on the restoration of tunnels in North Korea. It states, "Although North Korea demolished three tunnels at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site on May 24, 2018, it has restored tunnel number 3 as of 2022, raising the possibility of additional nuclear tests to enhance nuclear capabilities. Our military is strengthening surveillance accordingly."

North Korea Continues Developing Nuclear Warhead-Carrying Missiles Including ICBM Hwasong-17
Submarines Capable of Operating SLBMs and Hypersonic Missiles Still in Development Stage
North Korea's Land, Sea, and Air Forces Numerically Superior to Our Military
Qualitatively, Our Military's Advanced Weapons and ROK-US Deterrence Lead

North Korea is assessed to be steadily developing missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons following nuclear weapon manufacturing.

The White Paper states, "Based on the North Korean version of the Iskander-type tactical guided missile, which they claim has verified reliability, they have developed various short-range ballistic missiles such as the Ae-tak-seum type, heavy warhead type, and short-range type."

The Iskander-type refers to the KN-23, and the Ae-tak-seum type corresponds to the KN-24, which have been previously disclosed, while the "heavy warhead type" is interpreted as a newly identified model different from existing missiles. The heavy warhead type is classified as a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) with a range of 300 to 1000 km.

The latest Defense White Paper added expressions regarding the new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-17 but explained that further confirmation is needed on whether atmospheric reentry technology has been secured. It also analyzed that submarines capable of operating submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and hypersonic missiles are still under development.

When comparing military strength between South and North Korea, North Korea is numerically superior, but South Korea is assessed to be superior in qualitative aspects.

North Korea's military personnel number about 1.28 million, while our military has about 500,000, a reduction of approximately 155,000 compared to two years ago (about 655,000). North Korea overwhelmingly surpasses in terms of ground weapons quantitatively. Army strength includes multiple rocket launchers and rocket artillery (our military about 310 units, North Korea about 5,500 units), ground-to-ground guided missile launchers (about 60 units, about 100 units), and artillery (about 5,600 units, about 8,800 units). Naval strength also shows differences in combat vessels (about 90 ships, about 420 ships), landing ships (about 10 ships, about 250 ships), and submarines (about 10 ships, about 70 ships). Air power differences are seen in combat aircraft (about 410 units, about 810 units) and air mobility aircraft (about 50 units, about 350 units).

However, North Korea faces difficulties in training and operation due to aging equipment and fuel shortages. Meanwhile, our military is overwhelmingly ahead qualitatively by possessing advanced weapons. Our Air Force is equipped with fifth-generation F-35A stealth fighters, F-15K, KF-16 fighters, as well as E-737 airborne control aircraft and KC-330 multipurpose aerial refueling transport aircraft.

Furthermore, it is assessed that deterrence against North Korea is sufficiently possible through the ROK-US combined defense posture. The ROK and US are advancing tailored deterrence strategies (TDS), strengthening strategic asset deployment, developing the alliance's missile response (4D) strategy, and establishing the missile response policy coordination body (CMWG). In particular, they are promoting the development of theater-level combined exercise systems such as the Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercises, focusing on combined field training exercises, and maintaining combined operational capabilities through continuous joint training.

The Ministry of National Defense emphasized, "We will maintain a solid combined defense posture by mastering combined operational procedures and enhancing interoperability."