Cheong, Working on Drafting President Moon's Opening Speech... Political Burden if Opposition Boycotts Plenary Session While President Delivers Speech
[Asia Economy Reporters Jungmin Ryu, Jieun Lee, Nahum Kang] As the Blue House has virtually completed drafting President Moon Jae-in's congratulatory speech for the opening of the 21st National Assembly, the expression of the possibility of postponing the opening congratulatory speech has drawn attention as a potential variable in the negotiation results for the formation of the National Assembly between the ruling and opposition parties.
Initially, the Blue House had prepared for President Moon to visit the National Assembly and deliver a message of welcome and expectation for the launch of the 21st National Assembly if the ruling and opposition parties smoothly resolved the issue of distributing standing committee chairmanships. It is known that President Moon's congratulatory speech for the opening was structured around urging the role of the National Assembly during the COVID-19 pandemic and emphasizing the importance of cooperation.
Politics is the art of timing. The same message from the president can have vastly different impacts depending on when and where it is delivered. The Democratic Party has set a timetable to hold a plenary session on the 5th to elect the new Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly, followed by the election of standing committee chairpersons on the 8th.
The general analysis is that President Moon will not adjust his political schedule to align with the ruling party's timetable. This implies that President Moon will not deliver the congratulatory speech for the opening of the 21st National Assembly while members of the United Future Party are boycotting the plenary session in protest of the negotiation over the formation of the National Assembly.
In fact, there is a difference in perspective between the Blue House and the Democratic Party regarding the negotiation for the formation of the National Assembly. The ruling party, along with the Justice Party, Open Democratic Party, Basic Income Party, and Transition Korea, submitted a consent form for convening a provisional National Assembly based on the support of 188 lawmakers. This effectively formed a '1+4 opening' coalition excluding the United Future Party. The ruling party is pushing a strong offensive based on its overwhelming majority secured in the 21st general election.
Within the ruling party, there is a hardline stance that all standing committee chairmanships, including the key Legislative and Judiciary Committee and the Special Committee on Budget and Accounts, must be secured. The meaning is that this time, they should not be led by the United Future Party but demonstrate the ruling party's strength.
The Blue House's stance toward the ruling party's hardline position is complex. While it is difficult for the Blue House to openly intervene as the ruling party leadership, including Representative Lee Hae-chan and Floor Leader Kim Tae-nyeon, are engaged in negotiations, it is watching the situation with a cautious mindset. There is skepticism about whether the ruling party is deeply considering President Moon's 'political intentions.' On the 29th of last month, President Moon conveyed a message to the floor leaders of both parties, saying, "If the National Assembly opens on time and bills are passed promptly, I will carry you on my back."
According to Blue House officials, President Moon deeply feels the importance of bipartisan cooperation to overcome the COVID-19 crisis. If the ruling and opposition parties continue severe confrontation and conflict from the start of the 21st National Assembly, urgent issues requiring parliamentary cooperation, such as the passage of the third supplementary budget, may be delayed or fail one after another. Some within the Blue House even suggest that it may be necessary to concede the chairmanship of the Legislative and Judiciary Committee to secure opposition participation.
The United Future Party is showing a resolute stance against the ruling party's hardline approach. On the 2nd, Floor Leader Joo Ho-young indirectly pointed out the dangers of the logic of power by saying at a press conference, "Hitler and the Nazi regime also shouted 'according to the law.'"
There is a realistic concern that if the United Future Party loses in the negotiation over the formation of the National Assembly, it will experience the humiliation of a minor party throughout the 21st National Assembly. There is worry that if the Democratic Party holds a majority not only in the plenary session but also in all standing committees, and no checks and balances operate, the opposition may be reduced to a 'decorative party.'
The remaining variable is the showdown on the 3rd between Representative Lee and United Future Party Emergency Committee Chairman Kim Jong-in. If the experienced leaders of both parties can reach a dramatic agreement under the premise of avoiding the worst-case scenario amid the national crisis, it could lead to a major political turnaround.
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