The Entire Population of Suwon Purged... Unusual Tensions Between Xi Jinping and Zhang Youxia [Current Affairs Show]

Rumors of Xi Jinping's Ouster Subside After Military Parade
President Xi Inspects Troops, Weakening Ousting Speculation
Zhang Youxia Remains in Power... Ongoing Power Struggle Suspicions

■ Broadcast: Asia Economy 'So Jongsup's Current Affairs Show'

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongsup

■ Director: Producer Park Soo

■ Guest: Reporter Lee Hyunwoo

Rumors of President Xi Jinping's ousting, which had been a hot topic in Chinese political circles until last month, have somewhat subsided following the military parade commemorating the victory in the Anti-Japanese War held on the 3rd. However, as Zhang Youxia, the Vice Chairman of the Chinese Central Military Commission and a central figure in the rumors, appeared to remain in power, interpretations are emerging that the power struggle is not yet over. Until Xi’s fourth term is confirmed at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party scheduled for October, doubts about the future power structure in China are unlikely to be easily dispelled.

Xi Jinping Personally Inspects Troops at Parade...Power Struggle Suspicions Persist

On the 3rd (local time), Chinese President Xi Jinping inspecting the troops at the 80th anniversary military parade of Victory Day in China. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

At this parade, President Xi Jinping personally inspected the troops, contrary to some concerns. Up until just before the parade, there was speculation that Vice Chairman Zhang might be in charge of the inspection, raising doubts about Xi's control over the military. With Xi personally inspecting the troops, many of these concerns have been alleviated.

However, as Vice Chairman Zhang, who was at the center of the ousting rumors, still appeared healthy and participated in the parade, tensions remain. In particular, Zhang was seated among the retired members of the Politburo Standing Committee, a rank higher than his usual position, unlike other current Politburo members.

He Weidong, the third-ranking Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission and known as a close associate of Xi, did not appear at the parade. Additionally, with three out of the seven members of the Central Military Commission currently vacant, various interpretations are being raised.

Ten years ago, at the 70th anniversary Victory Day parade in 2015, Xi ousted then-second-in-command Guo Boxiong, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, on corruption charges and personally inspected the troops. Considering this precedent, there was speculation that if Xi had completely ended the power struggle, Vice Chairman Zhang would have faced the same fate. However, Zhang’s continued presence has led to talk that the power struggle among China’s top leadership may still be ongoing.

It is also being observed that not only in the military but also in the public security and armed police leadership, Xi’s close associates are being excluded. As Xi’s associates are increasingly pushed out of the police organizations under the military leadership, there are interpretations that, while Xi has managed to maintain his grip on power for now, the situation remains unstable.

Largest Purge Since the Cultural Revolution...Even Xi’s Close Associates Removed

Reuters Yonhap News

Some point out that it is difficult to understand why even Xi’s close associates are being purged in the ongoing high-intensity crackdown among China’s top leadership. This has led to growing doubts about whether Xi is truly the one leading the purge.

It is reported that nearly 890,000 Chinese Communist Party members were purged last year alone due to anti-corruption investigations. If this year is included, the number is expected to exceed 1 million, which is equivalent to the population of Suwon in South Korea being purged. Such a massive purge has not occurred since the Cultural Revolution, which is why suspicions are mounting. The persistent rumors about Xi’s ousting and instability in his power are attributed not only to his rivalry with Vice Chairman Zhang but also to these purges.

Even in a dictatorship, it is very rare for purges to proceed to the extent of undermining the dictator’s own power base. Currently, regardless of allegiance, anyone found guilty of corruption or any problem is immediately purged. If even the dictator’s own close associates cannot avoid purges, it ultimately leads to the dilemma of weakening the dictator’s own power base. Some are even concerned that, like Joseph Stalin in the Soviet Union, Xi may be engaging in a paranoid purge of his inner circle.

Within the Chinese leadership, there are concerns that if such indiscriminate purges continue for a long period, an anti-Xi Jinping coalition could form. Because the scale and scope of the purge are so broad, there is a possibility that it could undermine Xi’s power base and that an anti-Xi coalition could become a reality.

All Eyes on the October Fourth Plenary Session...Will Xi Secure a Fourth Term?

Yonhap News Agency

Attention is focused on the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party in October, where Xi Jinping’s fourth term is expected to be decided. If a fourth term is confirmed, it is expected that there will be no discussion of a successor. However, if there is any mention of a succession plan, it is anticipated that a natural transition of power may occur after the end of Xi’s current third term.

Some scenarios for a power transition suggest that once a succession plan emerges, Xi could be immediately ousted or that resistance could lead to a military coup. However, given the Chinese Communist Party’s cautious approach to succession, most believe that such drastic measures are unlikely.

Currently, China’s domestic and international environment is defined by ongoing confrontation with the United States and the West. Through this parade, China has openly declared its intent to form an anti-American alliance. In such a situation, if the current leader were to be ousted, it would not benefit China’s national interests. Therefore, even if Xi enters a period of power transition, it is expected that efforts will be made to make the process appear as seamless and natural as possible.

If a power transition does occur in China, it could have significant repercussions not only for South Korea but also internationally. Even a slight mention of a leadership change in China is expected to have a major global impact.

Much will depend on the character of the next leader, but any immediate shift could cause significant turmoil in US-China relations and the international situation. If a more hardline leadership emerges, aiming to accelerate the unification with Taiwan that Xi has set as a mid- to long-term national objective, it could pose a serious risk not only to South Korea but to Northeast Asia and the world as a whole.

Conversely, if a more conciliatory leadership toward the United States emerges, the possibility of war with Taiwan could be postponed or even dismissed. Instead, there is hope that the new leadership would focus on addressing China’s serious domestic issues, such as the economy and public welfare, while making gestures toward reconciliation with the United States.