Israel's Strike on Iran: Operation "Rising Lion" and Why It Has North Korea on Edge [AK Radio]

Attack on Enriched Nuclear Facilities Requires US Bunker Buster
North Korea, Like Iran, Faces Dilemma Over Extensive Underground Sites

Israel has named its military operation against Iran "Rising Lion," drawing significant attention to the background and meaning of this codename. The name is reportedly taken from Numbers 23:24 in the Old Testament, which states, "The people rise like a lioness; they rouse themselves like a lion that does not rest until it devours its prey and drinks the blood of its victims."

The lion has been a symbol of the Kingdom of Israel since ancient times, and the codename for this operation is interpreted as Israel’s determination that its people will never give up or lay down their arms until they have completely defeated their enemies. At the same time, some analysts believe this is also a message directed at the Iranian people.

Given that the symbol of the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran before the 1979 Islamic Revolution was also a lion holding a sword, some interpret Israel’s message as urging the Iranian people not to suffer under the current theocratic dictatorship, but to rise up like the lion of the past and resist the current regime. In fact, Israel has strongly expressed its desire for regime change in Iran through this operation, and it is reported that the US government is also considering the possibility that a pro-American regime, similar to the former Pahlavi dynasty, could come to power if the Iranian regime is replaced.

The background to Israel’s decision to launch a large-scale attack, despite anticipating significant damage, lies in the assessment that Iran’s nuclear development has reached a critical point. Up until just before the operation, nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran were ongoing, but no breakthrough was achieved. The problem is that Iran already possesses about 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%.

If this uranium is further enriched to over 90%, which is weapons-grade, Iran could produce around 10 small nuclear weapons within six months. As Iran continued to stall for time in negotiations and showed no intention of abandoning its nuclear ambitions, concerns arose that Iran could become a nuclear-armed state within six months.

On the 17th (local time), Israel's air defense system Iron Dome missile was launched to intercept an incoming missile from Iran. Photo by EPA Yonhap News

This situation is very similar to past nuclear negotiations with North Korea. North Korea also dragged out nuclear talks with the US from 1994, and eventually conducted its first nuclear test in 2006. From Israel’s perspective, there is concern that if it continues to delay action at this point, Iran will ultimately acquire nuclear weapons just as North Korea did. In the past, the US seriously considered a scenario to bomb North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear facility, but it was not carried out due to opposition from the Kim Youngsam administration. This time, however, Israel has made a determined decision to carry out the attack.

Because Iran’s underground nuclear facilities are located hundreds of meters below the surface, making them difficult to destroy, attention is focused on the US bunker buster. The US bunker buster weapon, the GBU-57, is about four times more powerful than previous models and was deployed in 2013. According to the US military, this weapon can destroy reinforced concrete structures up to 60 meters thick, hundreds of meters underground. Analysts believe the GBU-57 is the only weapon capable of destroying Iran’s underground nuclear facilities, which are reportedly buried about 800 meters deep in mountainous areas.

The explosive power of the bunker buster is so strong that it is comparable to a small nuclear weapon; when it penetrates and detonates, it can destroy substantial underground facilities. Originally, this weapon was developed with North Korea in mind, before Iran, because most of North Korea’s military facilities, including nuclear sites, are also located deep underground in mountainous terrain, much like Iran.

The bunker buster is a weapon on a completely different level from conventional bombs. It weighs 14 tons, nearly the weight of two 8-ton trucks. Only massive US aircraft, such as the B-1 bomber, are capable of carrying it. The explosive warhead alone weighs about 2 tons, and the weapon is so heavy because it contains many devices designed to penetrate the ground and reach its target.

With explosive power comparable to a small nuclear weapon, the bunker buster can not only destroy underground facilities, but if detonated in an urban area, it would have a force similar to the Hiroshima or Nagasaki explosions, enough to cause an entire city to collapse underground. To destroy such underground nuclear facilities, a weapon at the level of a tactical nuclear weapon is required. However, attacking a nuclear facility with a nuclear weapon would cause serious radioactive contamination, and the use of tactical nuclear weapons in wars between nuclear-armed states could lead to extremely dangerous situations. Therefore, the bunker buster is considered a far more practical conventional weapon for this purpose.

The Fordow nuclear facility, where Iran's highly enriched uranium is reportedly stored underground. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

Some analysts believe that if the US drops bunker busters repeatedly on the same location, the destructive power could reach even deeper underground. China, North Korea, and Russia are also paying close attention... North Korea will inevitably have to reassess the safety of its underground nuclear facilities. If the US military intervenes and continues to use bunker buster weapons to successfully target Iran’s nuclear facilities, China, North Korea, and Russia?who are monitoring these developments in real time?may be forced to reconsider their strategies toward the US.

In particular, while North Korea’s situation may be somewhat different because it is already a nuclear-armed state, it is expected that this will lead to strategic changes, prompting more consideration of the safety of its underground nuclear facilities. With the destructive power of the bunker buster now in the spotlight, it is believed that Kim Jongun is also feeling considerable tension, since the bunker buster is a weapon with destructive power comparable to a tactical nuclear weapon.

There is much speculation regarding the possibility of President Trump directly intervening militarily in an attack on Iran. Although his rhetoric suggests immediate action, in reality, all US military bases in the Middle East could come under attack if such an operation were launched. For President Trump’s supporters, this would mean the burden of sending even more troops abroad, when they would prefer to bring US forces home.

This situation inevitably leads to various interpretations. The Trump administration’s original campaign promise was to bring most US troops stationed overseas back home. However, if the US attacks Iran, the many militia groups in the Middle East supported by Iran could simultaneously attack US bases in Iraq, Syria, and other regions, inevitably causing casualties. This would put the US in a position where it would have no choice but to attack Iran directly. Ultimately, there are concerns that this could lead to a prolonged, 20-year military engagement in the Middle East, similar to the wars in Afghanistan or Iraq.

The Trump administration’s current stance is to use bunker busters to destroy only the nuclear facilities and limit its assistance to that, without further military intervention. However, once involved, it could become impossible to withdraw, and it is reported that there are fierce debates within the Trump administration over this issue. If President Trump becomes embroiled in a long-term military intervention, he could face political difficulties, as his support base may turn away from him. Therefore, it is interpreted that, while continuing to threaten the Iranian government, he will also try to find a diplomatic breakthrough by any means possible.