'Ruling Party Loses by 18%p' Accurate Prediction... Lee Jun-seok Warns "More Vile Self-Interest Will Emerge"

Lee Jun-seok's '18%p Defeat by the Ruling Party' Prediction Revisited
Critical Outlook on Ruling Party's Post-Election Situation
"Blinded by Self-Interest Despite Winning Experience"

Regarding the by-election for the Mayor of Gangseo District in Seoul, the ruling party lost by a margin similar to the result predicted by former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok, bringing his election forecast remarks back into the spotlight. Lee had anticipated that the People Power Party candidate Kim Tae-woo would be defeated by an 18 percentage point margin in this by-election.

According to the vote count results from the Central Election Commission on the 12th, Jin Gyo-hoon, the Democratic Party candidate, recorded a vote share of 56.52% (137,065 votes). Candidate Kim received 39.37% (95,492 votes), making the margin between the two candidates 17.15 percentage points. Lee’s prediction was almost accurate.

Former Lee Jun-seok, former leader of the People Power Party. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Regarding the reason for predicting an '18 percentage point margin defeat,' Lee explained in a KBS radio interview on the 2nd, "Comparing the vote shares of the two major parties in Gangseo Gap, Eul, and Byeong districts during the 2020 21st general election, there was about a 17.87% difference. It was roughly 38.78 to 56," adding, "I believe it will go exactly the same way. Because compared to the 2020 election, during the presidential election, many young voters came in, which narrowed or even reversed the vote gap (between the Democratic Party and us), but they have all disappeared."

Before the by-election voting began, the ruling party criticized Lee’s forecast as a 'pseudo-commentary.' Kim Byung-min, a Supreme Council member of the People Power Party, said, "Even if you lose or feel a crisis, you say it’s a close race, that with a little more effort you can win, but I have never seen a politician say they will lose by 18% (percentage points)," calling it a "pseudo-commentary."

After his prediction proved accurate, Lee posted on Facebook on the 12th, stating, "Today’s result almost unchanged from the 17.87% combined vote share gap in Gangseo District during the 21st general election," and added, "Since the defeat due to conservative consolidation in the April 2020 general election, through the Seoul mayoral by-election, the presidential and local elections, the assets we built up have been completely reset as of today."

He continued, "Even though we experienced ways to win in the meantime, those blinded by selfish desires have denied it," and added, "What is more regrettable is that from now on, even bigger and more despicable selfish desires will emerge, trying to continue the failed system."