Vote on Arrest Motion for Representative Lee Jae-myung in National Assembly Today (21st)
Pro-Lee Faction "Opposition Votes Also Party Line" Possible Rejection
Some Party Members "Lee Faces Backlash from Rejection Message"
The National Assembly vote on the arrest consent bill for Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, will take place on the afternoon of the 21st. With Lee having publicly called for a de facto ‘no’ vote the day before, the possibility of the bill being rejected is considered high, and there are also predictions that a mass defection of votes could occur within the Democratic Party, which is preparing for next year’s general election. If the arrest consent bill is rejected, the Democratic Party will once again be trapped in the 'bulletproof frame,' and if it passes, internal strife such as the 'subak (a derogatory term for non-Lee Jae-myung faction lawmakers) purge' and damage to Lee’s leadership will be inevitable, so aftershocks are expected. Political circles are focused on whether the number of defecting votes within the Democratic Party needed for the bill’s passage will exceed 28.
The National Assembly will hold a plenary session in the afternoon to sequentially vote on the motion to dismiss Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and the arrest consent bill for Lee. The arrest consent bill for Lee will pass if a majority of the total members are present and a majority of those present vote in favor. If passed, Lee will undergo a pre-trial detention hearing (warrant review) at the court.
Currently, there are a total of 298 members of the National Assembly. Excluding Lee, who is hospitalized, lawmaker Yoon Kwan-seok, who is in detention, and Foreign Minister Park Jin, who is on an overseas trip, the maximum number of attendees for the vote is 295. Of these, if 148 or more vote in favor, the bill will pass. A total of 120 votes in favor are expected, including 110 from the People Power Party (excluding Foreign Minister Park Jin), 6 from the Justice Party, lawmaker Cho Jung-hoon of the Transition Korea party, lawmaker Yang Hyang-ja of Korea Hope, and independent lawmakers Ha Young-je and Hwang Bo-seung-hee.
If 28 or more Democratic Party lawmakers defect, the arrest consent bill could be passed.
In the vote on Lee’s arrest consent bill last February, it is estimated that about 30 lawmakers defected. At that time, out of 297 total members, 139 voted in favor (passed), 138 against (rejected), 9 abstained, and 11 votes were invalid. The bill was rejected because the large number of invalid votes failed to meet the 'majority approval' criterion. It was analyzed that only 138 out of 169 Democratic Party lawmakers voted against the bill, which sparked strong internal backlash against the remaining rebel votes.
Most Democratic Party lawmakers who voted in favor in the first vote are likely to choose to support the bill again this time, and if abstentions and invalid votes also turn into 'approval,' the outcome of the arrest consent bill vote is unpredictable.
However, the Democratic Party is estimating a high possibility of the bill’s rejection, as sympathy within the party has spread since the prosecution requested an arrest warrant on the day Lee was transferred to the hospital due to a long-term hunger strike, and Lee himself effectively issued a 'rejection directive' through his Facebook the day before. Lee said, "We must not be defeated by succumbing to the unfair abuse of state power by the Yoon Seok-yeol administration and the political machinations of the political prosecution, nor be fooled by their tricks." He added, "This fight is not just between Lee Jae-myung and the prosecution. Stop the runaway train of prosecutorial dictatorship in front of the National Assembly and protect the constitutional order and democracy in crisis." The Democratic Party held a party meeting the day before and launched an all-out offensive against the Yoon Seok-yeol government and the prosecution while working to secure votes. Kim Min-seok, chairman of the Democratic Party’s Policy Committee, said on CBS Radio that "(Based on yesterday’s party meeting) most opinions were for rejection, and some even suggested that the party should set an official stance."
On the other hand, there are also predictions that Lee’s rejection message could actually encourage defections within the Democratic Party. Former National Assembly Secretary-General Yoo In-tae, a senior advisor to the Democratic Party, said on the same broadcast, "(Lee Jae-myung’s) SNS post yesterday seems to have caused a backlash greater than expected," and analyzed, "Because of that message, the Democratic Party has psychologically moved toward a split." Since Lee promised to give up parliamentary immunity in his June representative speech and issued a statement asking for the rejection of his arrest consent bill, Democratic Party lawmakers who feared criticism of a 'bulletproof hunger strike' may cast a large number of votes in favor. Lee Won-wook, a non-mainstream lawmaker, said on BBS Radio that "It has become an admission of a bulletproof hunger strike," adding, "About 20 votes in favor are certain, but it is difficult to predict how the abstaining lawmakers will change their votes."
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