[Global Issue+] Ukraine Starts Counterattack with Western Tanks, What Are the Chances of Success?

Counteroffensive on Eastern Front including Bakhmut Intensifies
Russia Claims Complete Repulsion...Possibility of Exaggeration

The Ukrainian military has launched a large-scale counteroffensive against Russian forces in the eastern Donbas region, drawing global attention. There is hope that this counteroffensive could become a new breakthrough in the long-stalemated front lines. It is also expected to reveal how much the Ukrainian forces have been strengthened by recent Western tank support.

While the Russian military claims to have repelled the Ukrainian counterattacks multiple times and confidently asserts that the Ukrainian forces will not be able to break through their defensive lines, experts remain cautious. Since the Ukrainian military is still conducting preliminary attacks to identify weak points in the Russian front, it is analyzed that the battle will continue for several weeks, after which the outcome will be decided.

Ukraine "Seizes Key Heights in Bakhmut"... Counteroffensive in Full Swing

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

According to CNN on the 5th (local time), Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister, stated on her Telegram account that "the Ukrainian forces have mostly shifted to the offensive along the front lines" and "our troops have captured some key heights and are advancing toward Bakhmut." This announcement came after the Russian Ministry of Defense reported a large-scale Ukrainian offensive in the Donetsk area the previous day, confirming that the Ukrainian counterattack is underway.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also expressed gratitude in a video on the same day, saying, "I thank the soldiers, defenders, and everyone who has brought the long-awaited news. Especially the soldiers in Bakhmut, well done," implying that Ukrainian forces have achieved some victories around Bakhmut. However, he did not disclose specific details about the situation.

On the other hand, the Russian Ministry of Defense acknowledged the Ukrainian offensive but claimed it was entirely repelled. According to Russia’s TASS news agency, the Ukrainian attacks in the Donetsk region were stopped again on the same day, with the Ukrainian forces suffering over 1,500 casualties and losing eight German-made Leopard 2 tanks.

Can They Break Through Russian Defenses? "Offensive to Continue for Several Weeks"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

However, experts analyze that the Russian claims of repelling the attacks may be somewhat exaggerated. It is highly likely that only small-scale localized skirmishes of a preliminary nature were conducted to identify weak points in the main Russian front lines.

Richard Barrons, former UK Joint Forces Commander, told the AP news agency in an interview, "The Ukrainian attacks are still in the preliminary stage, and after identifying weaknesses in the front, they will concentrate their forces to break through. The Russian military may have exaggerated the scale of the battle and claimed victory to appease domestic public opinion."

He added that it is unlikely the Ukrainian forces would have launched such reckless assaults given they have received substantial Western tank support and have undergone months of training preparation. Since the counteroffensive has been prepared over a considerable period, the battles along the main front lines are expected to continue for several weeks.

However, concerns remain about the limitations of the Ukrainian advance due to their significantly weaker air force compared to Russia. As the United States and Western countries hesitate over providing F-16 fighter jets requested by Ukraine, fearing escalation, debates are ongoing about how effective the counteroffensive can be without air superiority.