[Constituency Disappearance] Busan Nam-gu and Gyeonggi Ansan to Lose Parliamentary Seats

① Why the January 2023 Population is the Election Grim Reaper
Basis for Next April's General Election Districting, Regions with Mixed Fortunes
Even Jongno, the Political Hub, Cannot Be Assured of Constituency Survival

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's NoteAs of the end of January 2023, the population count, which serves as the basis for the delineation of electoral districts for the 22nd general election in April 2024, has been finalized. Although the ruling and opposition parties will continue negotiations on electoral system reform, the population criteria for determining electoral districts have already been set. Based on the 21st general election, this article predicts which electoral districts will disappear, which will be merged, and which will actually increase in number among the 253 constituencies.

The grim reaper of elections has quietly arrived. The resident registration population status as of January 2023, compiled by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, has been finalized. The reason why the political circles in Yeouido were on high alert about the population in January this year is that it serves as the benchmark for delineating electoral districts for the 22nd general election scheduled for April 10 next year. The results are already out. The fortunes of lawmakers are mixed.

No one can arbitrarily increase the number of voters in their own constituency. They must accept their fate. Now, there will be lawmakers whose constituencies disappear. This means that before even holding an election, their electoral district itself vanishes. It is a harsh fate where they must compete not only against opposition parties but also against colleagues within their own party for nominations.

Article 25 of the Public Official Election Act sets the criteria for delineating electoral districts.

The population used as the basis for delineating National Assembly constituencies shall be the population surveyed according to the resident registration records pursuant to Article 7, Paragraph 1 of the Resident Registration Act as of the last day of the month that falls 15 months before the election date.

Counting backward from the April general election next year, January 2023 is the month that falls 15 months before the election date.

According to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety on the 6th, the nationwide resident registration population as of January 2023 is 51,430,018. The upper and lower population limits are calculated by adding or subtracting 33.3% from the average population per constituency, which is the total divided by the 253 National Assembly constituencies nationwide. These upper and lower limits serve as the standard for population deviation among constituencies. The Constitutional Court has recommended that the population difference between constituencies should not exceed a ratio of 2 to 1 in delineating electoral districts for general elections.

This means the difference between the constituency with the smallest population and the one with the largest population should not exceed double.

Based on the resident registration population in January this year, the lower limit is approximately 135,000 people, and the upper limit is about 270,000 people. The figures 135,000 and 270,000 are the criteria that determine the fate of National Assembly constituencies. These criteria are not applied rigidly in delineating electoral districts. The exact numbers can be adjusted through negotiations between the ruling and opposition parties.

For reference, during the 21st general election in 2020, the population limits were 139,000 and 278,000. It remains to be seen which figures the ruling and opposition parties will ultimately adopt for the 22nd general election. Constituencies close to the cutoff lines of 135,000 and 270,000 based on the January population this year are bound to experience significant changes in their fate.

Based on the resident registration population data released by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety for January, an investigation into the population of the 253 constituencies by the National Election Commission yielded interesting results.

Gangwon Province, which has always been uneasy about population decline issues during National Assembly constituency delineation, surprisingly appears to be a calm zone in the reorganization. Unless there is a major surprise, the eight seats in Gangwon Province are likely to be maintained because all constituencies exceed the lower population limit of 135,000.

However, Nam-gu in Busan (2 seats) and Ansan in Gyeonggi Province (4 seats) are likely to see a reduction in their current seats in the National Assembly. Considering fairness with other regions, they are expected to be directly hit by the redistricting knife.

Nam-gu in Busan was divided into Gap and Eul districts, electing two lawmakers. However, the population as of January this year is only 256,190. Since it does not reach the upper population limit, it is possible that the two districts will be merged into one.

Ansan's population was recorded as 640,679. Ansan currently has four seats allocated: Sangnok Gap, Sangnok Eul, Danwon Gap, and Danwon Eul. However, considering the population, the number of seats may be reduced to three, such as Gap, Eul, and Byeong. While it is possible to maintain four seats, it is highly likely to become a sacrificial lamb in the overall seat adjustment process.

Jeonbuk Iksan (273,266) and Jeonnam Yeosu (274,495) also cannot rule out the possibility that their current two seats may be reduced to one depending on the upper population limit results for constituency delineation.

There are places where constituency disappearance is virtually confirmed. Dongducheon-Yeoncheon in Gyeonggi Province (133,205), Namwon-Imsil-Sunchang in Jeonbuk (130,912), Gimje-Buan in Jeonbuk (131,681), and Gunwi-Uiseong-Cheongsong-Yeongdeok in Gyeongbuk (132,297) all have populations below 135,000, making it highly likely they will disappear in the 22nd general election.

There are also places happily facing the possibility of an increase in lawmakers. Seo-gu in Incheon has a population of 592,298. Currently, Seo-gu Gap and Seo-gu Eul are allocated two constituencies, but the number of seats is expected to increase to three. The same applies to Pyeongtaek in Gyeonggi Province. With a population of 580,011, it may increase from the current Pyeongtaek Gap and Pyeongtaek Eul to three constituencies: Gap, Eul, and Byeong.

Hanam in Gyeonggi Province, with a population of 326,496, cannot be represented by just one constituency. This means the number of lawmakers in Hanam could increase to two.

Hwaseong in Gyeonggi Province is likely to increase its seats from the current three to four because its population reaches 914,500.

Ansan, with a population of 640,679, currently has four seats allocated, but if Hwaseong, with a population of 914,500, is allocated only three seats, fairness issues will inevitably arise.

Goyang and Yongin cities each have populations exceeding 1.07 million. However, they have the same number of lawmakers as Ansan, which is four. Even if Goyang and Yongin divide their districts finely by dong (neighborhood), the average population per constituency exceeds 267,500. This means they are approaching the upper population limit for constituency delineation. Changwon in Gyeongnam has a population of 1,020,593 but has five seats in the National Assembly.

Goyang and Yongin have larger populations than Changwon but have one fewer seat. Based on the upper and lower population limits, the number of seats should be increased or decreased, but it is also possible to prevent drastic changes in seat numbers by adding or removing some neighboring areas. The key interest lies in how the numbers will be adjusted from 135,000 and 270,000.

Another point of interest is that the population of Jongno in Seoul, known as the political number one district, was counted as 141,223. It appears that the lawmaker for Jongno will be elected as usual this time, but there is talk that the Jongno constituency might disappear in the 2028 general election.