[Constituency Disappearance] Although 1.07 Million in Goyang and Yongin Require More Seats...

③Gyeonggi Large Cities Matching Metropolitan Population
Increasing Capital Region Seats Reduces Rural Seats

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoon Seul-gi]

Editor's NoteThe population count as of the end of January 2023, which serves as the basis for the 2024 April 22nd general election district delineation, has been finalized. Although the ruling and opposition parties will continue negotiations on election system reform, the population criteria for determining electoral districts have already been set. Based on the 21st general election, this article predicts which districts among the 253 constituencies will disappear, which will be merged, and which will actually increase in number.

With the 22nd general election scheduled for April next year just over a year away, interest in electoral district delineation is growing. The delineation of electoral districts, which determines the number of seats per region, is a critical issue that causes mixed feelings between regions. If the number of districts increases in one area, it decreases in another. Since the population is concentrating in the metropolitan area, there is a high possibility of an increase in districts there, raising concerns about the consolidation of districts in rural areas.

In the 22nd general election, Goyang and Yongin in Gyeonggi Province are very likely to see an increase in electoral districts. According to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, as of January this year, Goyang's population is 1,077,599, and Yongin's is 1,074,650.

According to Article 25 of the Public Official Election Act, the population used as the basis for delineating National Assembly electoral districts is the population surveyed based on the resident registration records as of the last day of the month 15 months before the election date, pursuant to Article 7, Paragraph 1 of the Resident Registration Act. Analyzing the population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, the population size for the 22nd general election districts is expected to be roughly between a lower limit of 135,000 and an upper limit of around 270,000.

Applying this, Goyang and Yongin, each currently divided into four districts named Gap, Eul, Byeong, and Jeong, may increase to five districts named Gap, Eul, Byeong, Jeong, and Mu. Previously, the need for adjusting electoral districts in these areas was raised during the 21st general election as well. There were criticisms that other regions with smaller populations elected more representatives, causing inequity.

In the last general election, the populations of Goyang and Yongin were around 1.04 million, but each elected only four National Assembly members. Ansan in Gyeonggi Province, with a population of about 660,000, also elected four members.

Electoral district subdivision must be approached cautiously. The current number of electoral districts is fixed at 253, so if one area gains districts, another must lose them due to this interlinked structure.

In Sejong Special Self-Governing City, where the population increased, an additional consolidated district was created following subdivision in the last general election. Conversely, in Gunpo City, Gyeonggi Province, where the population decreased, the districts were reduced from two (Gap and Eul) to one.

It is also noteworthy that regions expected to see an increase in electoral districts, i.e., subdivisions, are concentrated in Gyeonggi Province.

Unless the Public Official Election Act is amended to increase the total number of National Assembly members, regions with smaller populations, especially rural areas, are likely to be merged with other districts. This could disadvantage voters in primarily agricultural regions, and from the perspective of areas facing consolidation, it directly weakens regional representation, making them particularly sensitive to electoral district subdivision.